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Cause Cause - The cycle of events that lead to an action or result. According to Aristotle there were four causes: Material cause,that out of which a thing comes to be or persists, i.e., the building material; Efficient cause, the primary source of change (see change), or the source of creation of a thing, event, action; Formal cause, the pattern or plan used by the creator, a form of archetype; Formal cause, that for the sake of which a thing is done, its final purpose. Bacon further divide these four causes into two categories: Physics, which addresses material and efficiency causes, and Metaphysics, which addresses the formal and final causes. Men tend to stay with only the material and the efficiency causes and thus arrest further discoveries. Spinoza on the other hand believed all "final causes are nothing but human fiction." (top) Change - (top) Counter-intuitive - ideas or assumptions are those that seem to be contrary to what would be considered normal. Since these ideas /assumptions donÕt fall with in the expected norm they are not reviewed and evaluated as thoroughly if at all as those that do fall within the normal range.(top) Cross-impact Analysis - consists of a group of methods to explore the impact of one possibility on other possible events in the future. By iteration and refinement, a clearer picture of likely future interactions is hopefully obtained. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Delphi Technique - a process of obtaining several expert's opinions through polling and based on three conditions: anonymity, statistical display, and feedback of reasoning, to obtain a final prediction. (top) Dialectic Approach - an expert makes a prediction and then counters same with an extreme opposite or counter prediction. Both predictions are then strongly criticized. (top) Discontinuity - a sharp shift or break from a trend that has been proceeding on a smooth curve. This break is so sharp that it cannot be explained by the normal expected variation. A major shift in a trend, that is so drastic that it cannot be accounted for by normal variation. An example might be the increase in users of the Internet when the first browser was created. (top) Distopia - a real or imagined society that is totally dysfunctional to its citizens, e.g. the society pictured in 1984, Doomsday Forecast - A forecast where a future catastrophe is the focal issue. (top) Driving Forces - There are many trends or events that shape the future, but some are more important and evident than others. Driving forces are these major future shapers. Examples might be the essence of demographic changes or technological innovations. (top) Dynamic modeling - is the concept of designating a mathematical model of causal relationships and interactions. Then, by computer the forecaster can examine the behavior of the model under various assumptions. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Extrapolation -forecasting trends by assuming they will continue to move as they have in the past. (top). Fishbone - is a process of identifying possible outcomes of a particular issue the backbone is the issue under discussion and the bibs are the outcomes. These can be further studied to determine likelihood and impact. (top) Focal Issue - The central issue being addressed when studying the future. Forecast - a statement about a condition in the future, arrived at though a system of reasoning consciously applied by the forecaster and exposed to the recipient. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Forecast -is an estimate of what a future might be. Even though a particular forecast may be supported by various levels of facts and trends, it doesn't mean that it will happen. Oft-times probabilities are attached to a forecast. A good example is a weather forecast. (top) Foresight - Thoughtful regard or provision for the future: prudent forethought. (top) Futurist. - There is no good definition. Basically, it is a person interested in futures-related work. A small number work full time on the topic, many more are part time futurists and full time doing something else. They range from popular writers to highly technical experts in selected areas. Their views are in agreement on some things and vary widely on others. (top) Group-intelligence - when doing a forecast with group intelligence there is a synergism at work as each member of the group contributes to the forecast. The result is of this creative group effort produces a result that contains ideas and information from all members. They members actually steer the group to an answer that is more comprehensive than can be obtained by one person in the same amount of time. See Delphi method. (top) Group-think - This is the opposite of Group intelligence. It is a trap that one can easily get into when doing forecasting. The danger of the group thinking as one is a tendency to narrow the scope of their thinking and consequently there is less discussion of opposing views and a forecast that will be lacking. (top) Intuitive Forecasting - a systematic assessment of informed opinion. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Leading Indicators ? the US government provides information on a series of leading indicators each month: GNP, unemployment, factory inventories to name a few. These indicators reflect early warnings of change. Indicators can be established for any field (e.g., financial, industrial, technology, environmental) These can also be called key performance indicators. As they represent the performance of the most important aspects of the field being studied. The numbers are representative of large amounts of data that are reduced to simple highly representative numbers. (top) Model. - A prototype. It can be a physical model or a computer based model. One can model a system or a product or a process or It is often used in simulations to represent components together of the system. Simple models can easily be used as "what ifÕ Models by in-putting different sets of data and comparing the results. Monitoring - attempts to identify technology in its embryo stages, as well as to recognize signals that will influence its direction. The forecaster than allows the appropriate phenomena in order to determine the rate of progress and the true character of the impact, James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Normative or Goal-oriented Forecasting - assumes that technology will materialize to fill needs. By various techniques of structural analysis, one develops the future importance of technology, hence the probability of its emergence, which is relative to a perceived value or need. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Paradigm - a philosophical and theoretical framework of a scientific school or a discipline within which theories, laws, and generalizations and the experiments performed in support of them are formulated. Merriam Webster on Line Dictionary A paradigm is a pattern/mode/description of a given situation. It can be thought of as the force behind the unwritten rules of society or a particular discipline. (top) Paradigm Shift - When paradigm shifts occur it calls the prevailing wisdom into question This opens up the prevailing thinking or "rules" to be questioned. When the number of individuals "experts" accept the new paradigm, then it becomes the ruling factor. (top) Predetermined - A Calvinistic approach. The future is already know or set. (top) Prediction - a statement about the future based on rationale (if any) that the predictor has not made know. A high level of confidence is implied by the predictor's words, actions, and/or recommendations. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Propaganda - statement about the future designed and offered specifically to gain support for the advocate's position, goals, or concerns. A rationale may or may not be offered, but the motive is persuasive above all else. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Prophecy - a prediction under divine inspiration or supernatural influence, real or professed. Common usage may slight the "divine" part of this dictionary definition. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Scenario - An outline for a proposed or planned situation or events, real or imagined. By creating several scenarios for the same situation, one envision the results of the impact of different trends or outcomes. This will provide more insight into what might occur in the future, (top) Scenarios or Alternative Futures Method - assumes that the exploration of a range of possible future conditions will lead to insight and planning of greater flexibility and sensibility to potential changes. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) S-Curve - a data vs. time plot indicating a slow start, fast growth, and a leveling off due to limiting forces. (top) SEPTs - societal, economic, political & technological issues to be addressed when studying the future. (top) Sigmoid curve (S curve) - a curve that appears as an S, due to a slow start, rapid growth, then leveling. Population growth usually follows an S curve. (top) Simulation - The creation of a representation (simulation) of a real event. The most famous being the airline simulator, a simulator so real that people can actually get hurt flying it. A good simulation accurately represents the real world. The operator of the simulation can learn a great deal in a risk free environment (except for those pesky airline simulators). (top) Speculation - a statement about the future in which the predictor admits high uncertainty and/or admits lack of highly supportive rationale. It implies the use of unsupported opinion and imagination. (top) SWOT - Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities and Threats, this is a method that has been used for years by industry to for strategic planning. First one looks at the strengths of the firm or plan and lists them. Second look for the weaknesses that may lie within. Then a list of opportunities is created to see where the best path(s) lie, and finally, any threats that can be foreseen are documented. From the comparisons of this data the planers can find the optimum path or paths that they may take in the future. (top) Synergism - : interaction of discrete agencies (as industrial firms), agents (as drugs), or conditions such that the total effect is greater than the sum of the individual effects. Merriam Webster Dictionary on line. (top) Technological Innovation - process of technological innovation embraces that sequence of activities by which technological knowledge is translated from the mind into a physical reality and becomes used on a scale having substantial societal impact. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Technology Forecasting - a quantified prediction of the timing and of the character or the degree of change of technical parameters and attributes associated with the design, production and use of devices, materials and processes, according to a specified system of reasoning. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Trend Extrapolation - extension of the past, has been called exploratory forecasting or capability oriented forecasting. It assumes that future technology will have some kind of predictable relationship to past performance. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) - applies a mathematical (best fit ) curve to historic data, then quantitatively allows for the possible future events that might impact on the mathematical extrapolation. It applies specific mathematical modifications of this extrapolation for each events impact. Next, via computer, a summation of these collective impacts is prepared. Subjective judgment is applied to the computer output in establishing the final projection. James A Bright, "Practical Technology Forecasting." (top) Trends - Continuing patterned event leading/pointing to a future. Utopian - any visionary scheme or system for a ideally perfect society. (top) Wholistic Thinking - Also known as system thinking it is an approach that looks at the whole rather than dissecting the systems and looking at the individual components. The sum is greater than whole. This is because more information is generated when the system is running or viewed as a total operating system. (top) |